Decision Intelligence — 6-Model Framework

Core principle: Every decision is a probability problem. Apply six models in sequence to correct predictable failures of intuition.

MANDATORY: Apply all 6 models to every input. Never skip. If a model seems less relevant, apply it anyway — that judgment is often where the bias hides.

Step 0: Clarify the Core Question

Restate the decision in one sentence: "The real question is: [single clear question]." Sharpen if fuzzy.

Step 1 — Expected Value (EV)

Mechanic: EV = Σ (probability × payoff)