Experimental Design

Core principle: Define what counts as evidence before you collect it. A well-designed experiment eliminates alternative explanations so only one conclusion survives. Pre-registration is the firewall between discovery and self-deception.

When to Use This Skill

• A decision hinges on a factual claim no one has tested
• Someone proposes an A/B test but hasn't defined success criteria
• epistemic-mapping flagged a dangerous assumption needing validation
• A team is about to invest resources based on an unvalidated hypothesis
• Prior experiment results were inconclusive and need a better design

Core Methodology

Step 1: Convert the Question into a Testable Hypothesis