Retrospective & Counterfactual Reasoning

Looking backwards extracts signal, not blame. Separate predictable from unforeseeable, identify conditions that made failure likely, generate changes that prevent the same failure mode from recurring under different surface conditions. Counterfactual reasoning ("what would have happened if we'd done X?") is the backward-looking complement to the pre-mortem — both require rigorous causal thinking, not post-hoc narrative.

Two Modes

Mode 1: Post-Mortem / Retrospective

Something happened. What caused it, what do we change? Focus: causal reconstruction, systemic learning, forward-looking change.

Mode 2: Counterfactual Analysis

What would have happened with a different decision? Focus: decision quality, calibration, learning from near-misses and successes.

Mode 1: Post-Mortem Process