Second-Order Thinking

First-order asks "what happens next?" Second-order asks "and then what?" Most consequential effects — intended and unintended — live in the second and third order.

The Core Loop

For any action or decision, trace the consequence chain:

Action
  → 1st order effect (immediate, obvious)
      → 2nd order effect (who responds? what changes?)
          → 3rd order effect (what does that change produce?)
              → ... (stop when effects become negligible or too uncertain)