Cognitive Bias Detection

Core: Reasoning is systematically distorted by predictable errors operating below conscious awareness. The most dangerous analyses are the ones that feel most certain. This skill audits the reasoning process, not just conclusions.

Highest-Impact Biases

Evaluation & Decision

Confirmation Bias — Seeking/interpreting/remembering info that confirms existing beliefs; disconfirming evidence is dismissed.

• Signal: "The data confirms what we suspected." Counter-evidence underweighted.
• Fix: Seek the strongest case against. Assign someone to argue opposite.

Anchoring — Overweighting the first number/estimate/framing.

• Signal: Estimates cluster around an initial figure; comparisons against an unvalidated reference.
• Fix: Generate estimates independently first. "What would this look like without the anchor?"