cognitive-bias-detection
Cognitive Bias Detection
Core principle: Human (and AI) reasoning is systematically distorted by cognitive biases — predictable errors in judgment that operate below conscious awareness. The most dangerous analyses are the ones that feel most certain. This skill audits the reasoning process itself, not just the conclusions.
The Most Impactful Biases to Check
Evaluation & Decision Biases
Confirmation Bias Seeking, interpreting, and remembering information that confirms existing beliefs. Disconfirming evidence is dismissed or reframed.
- Signal: "The data confirms what we suspected." / Evidence against the conclusion gets less attention than evidence for it.
- Fix: Actively seek the strongest case against the conclusion. Assign someone to argue the opposite.
Anchoring Over-weighting the first number, estimate, or framing encountered.
- Signal: Estimates cluster around an initial figure. Comparisons are made relative to a reference point that was never validated.
- Fix: Generate estimates independently before seeing others. Ask "what would this look like if the anchor didn't exist?"
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