scenario-planning
Scenario Planning
Core principle: The future is uncertain. Don't predict which future happens — map plausible futures and test strategies against each. Robust strategies perform reasonably across multiple scenarios. Fragile strategies only work if one specific future occurs.
The Core Process
Step 1: Define the Decision or Strategy
- Time horizon (6 months / 2 years / 5 years)?
- Decision needed now?
- What does "good" look like across futures?
Step 2: Identify Key Uncertainties
The 2–3 factors that are both:
- Highly uncertain (we genuinely don't know how they'll unfold)
- Highly impactful (they'd significantly change the right strategy)
These are the scenario axes. Skip certainties and minor factors.
More from andurilcode/skills
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31probabilistic-thinking
Apply probabilistic and Bayesian thinking whenever the user needs to reason under uncertainty, compare risks, prioritize between options, update beliefs based on new evidence, or make decisions without complete information. Triggers on phrases like "what are the odds?", "how likely is this?", "should I be worried about X?", "which risk is bigger?", "does this data change anything?", "is this a signal or noise?", "what's the probability?", "how confident are we?", or any situation where decisions are being made based on incomplete or ambiguous evidence. Also trigger when someone is treating uncertain outcomes as certainties, or when probability language is being used loosely ("probably", "unlikely", "very likely") without quantification. Don't leave uncertainty unexamined.
28inversion-premortem
Apply inversion and pre-mortem thinking whenever the user asks to evaluate a plan, strategy, architecture, feature, or decision before execution — or when they want to stress-test something that already exists. Triggers on phrases like "is this a good idea?", "what could go wrong?", "review this plan", "should we do this?", "are we missing anything?", "stress-test this", "what are the risks?", or any request to validate a decision or design. Use this skill proactively — if the user is about to commit to something, this skill should be consulted even if they don't ask for it explicitly.
24cognitive-bias-detection
Apply cognitive bias detection whenever the user (or Claude itself) is making an evaluation, recommendation, or decision that could be silently distorted by systematic thinking errors. Triggers on phrases like "I'm pretty sure", "obviously", "everyone agrees", "we already invested so much", "this has always worked", "just one more try", "I knew it", "the data confirms what we thought", "we can't go back now", or when analysis feels suspiciously aligned with what someone wanted to hear. Also trigger proactively when evaluating high-stakes decisions, plans with significant sunk costs, or conclusions that conveniently support the evaluator's existing position. The goal is not to paralyze — it's to flag where reasoning may be compromised so it can be corrected.
24analogical-thinking
Apply analogical thinking whenever the user is designing a system, architecture, or process and would benefit from structural patterns that already exist in other domains — or when a problem feels novel but may have been solved elsewhere under a different name. Triggers on phrases like "how should we structure this?", "has anyone solved this before?", "we're designing from scratch", "what's a good model for this?", "I keep feeling like this resembles something", "what patterns apply here?", or when facing architecture, organizational, or process design decisions. Also trigger when a problem has been analyzed thoroughly but no good solution has emerged — the answer may exist in an adjacent domain. Don't reinvent what's been solved. Recognize the shape of the problem first.
23first-principles-thinking
Apply first principles thinking whenever the user is questioning whether a design, strategy, or solution is fundamentally right — not just well-executed. Triggers on phrases like "are we solving the right problem?", "why do we do it this way?", "is this the best approach?", "everyone does X but should we?", "we've always done it this way", "challenge our assumptions", "start from scratch", "is there a better way?", or when the user seems to be iterating on a flawed premise rather than questioning the premise itself. Also trigger when a proposed solution feels like an incremental improvement on something that may be fundamentally broken. Don't optimize a flawed foundation — question it first.
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