grad-real-options
Real Options
Overview
Real options theory applies financial option pricing logic to corporate investment decisions. It recognizes that managers can adapt their decisions as uncertainty resolves — deferring, expanding, contracting, or abandoning projects. Traditional NPV, which assumes a now-or-never commitment, systematically undervalues projects with significant flexibility.
When to Use
- Evaluating investments with high uncertainty and managerial flexibility
- Comparing staged vs. committed investment strategies
- Valuing natural resource extraction, R&D, or platform investments
- When NPV is near zero but the project has strategic optionality
When NOT to Use
- For routine, low-uncertainty investments where NPV suffices
- When flexibility is contractually or practically absent
- If the option exercise conditions are unclear or unquantifiable
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