startup-trend-prediction
Startup Trend Prediction
Systematic framework for analyzing historical trends to predict future opportunities. Look back 2-3 years to predict 1-2 years ahead.
Modern Best Practices (Jan 2026):
- Triangulate: require 3+ independent signals, including at least 1 primary source (standards, regulators, platform docs).
- Separate leading vs lagging indicators; don't overfit to social/media noise.
- Add hype-cycle defenses: falsification, base rates, and adoption constraints (distribution, budgets, compliance).
- Tie trends to a decision (enter / wait / avoid) with explicit assumptions and a review cadence.
Quick Reference: Building a Trend View (Dec 2025)
1) Define the Decision
- What decision are we supporting: enter / wait / avoid?
- Horizon: {{HORIZON}}
- Buyer and market: {{BUYER}} / {{MARKET}}
2) Collect Signals (Leading vs Lagging)
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