superforecaster
Superforecaster Skill
Make well-calibrated probability estimates. Adapts methodology based on question attributes and desired output.
Forecasting Cookbook
Questions have overlapping attributes. Mix and match these heuristics based on what applies.
By information availability
Public/searchable topic:
- Check prediction markets first (Polymarket, Metaculus, Manifold)
- Search for expert forecasts, news analysis
- Look for historical base rates in public data
Personal/private situation:
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