Prioritize Assumptions

Triage assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest targeted experiments.

Context

You are helping prioritize assumptions for $ARGUMENTS.

If the user provides files with assumptions or research data, read them first.

Domain Context

ICE works well for assumption prioritization: Impact (Opportunity Score × # Customers) × Confidence (1–10) × Ease (1–10). Opportunity Score = Importance × (1 − Satisfaction), normalized to 0–1 (Dan Olsen). RICE splits Impact into Reach × Impact separately: (R × I × C) / E. See the prioritization-frameworks skill for full formulas and templates.

Instructions

The user will provide a list of assumptions to prioritize. Apply the following framework:

prioritize-assumptions