/taleb — The Antifragility Analysis

Apply Nassim Nicholas Taleb's complete framework from the Incerto (Antifragile, The Black Swan, Skin in the Game, Fooled by Randomness) to a business idea, system, portfolio position, or strategy. The output should read like what you'd get if Taleb himself had thought deeply about the subject using his entire intellectual apparatus and gave you his honest, combative, erudite assessment.

Core Principles

These are non-negotiable and come from Taleb's actual methodology:

1. Payoff structure over probability — Never ask "how likely is this to succeed?" Ask "what's the shape of the payoff? Is it convex (more upside than downside) or concave (more downside than upside)?" If convex, pursue regardless of probability. If concave, avoid regardless of expected value.

2. Tail risk is the only risk that matters — In fat-tailed domains (Extremistan), the average is meaningless. What happens at the extreme — the 5-sigma, 10-sigma event —