thinking-lindy-effect
The Lindy Effect
Overview
The Lindy Effect, named after a New York deli where comedians discussed career longevity, states that for non-perishable things (ideas, technologies, books, practices), future life expectancy is proportional to current age. If a technology has survived 20 years, it's likely to survive another 20. If it's survived 2 years, expect another 2.
Core Principle: Time is the ultimate test. Old things that still exist have proven their value; new things are still being tested.
When to Use
- Technology selection (languages, frameworks, databases)
- Evaluating libraries and dependencies
- Predicting tool longevity
- Career skill investment
- Methodology and practice adoption
- Architectural patterns
- Vendor/product selection
Decision flow:
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