The Lindy Effect

Overview

The Lindy Effect, named after a New York deli where comedians discussed career longevity, states that for non-perishable things (ideas, technologies, books, practices), future life expectancy is proportional to current age. If a technology has survived 20 years, it's likely to survive another 20. If it's survived 2 years, expect another 2.

Core Principle: Time is the ultimate test. Old things that still exist have proven their value; new things are still being tested.

When to Use

• Technology selection (languages, frameworks, databases)
• Evaluating libraries and dependencies
• Predicting tool longevity
• Career skill investment
• Methodology and practice adoption
• Architectural patterns
• Vendor/product selection

Decision flow: