Lindy Effect

For non-perishable ideas, technologies, and practices, expected remaining life scales with current survival age. Prefer proven survivors unless the new option clears a burden of proof or the domain has drifted.

When to Use

• Choosing languages, frameworks, databases, protocols, patterns, or dependencies where long-term survival matters.
• Skill or architecture bets whose value depends on lasting relevance.
• Ranking options when ages differ materially and the choice outlives a short experiment.

When NOT to Use

• Perishable targets: specific SaaS vendors, hardware, fashion, or products that can shut down regardless of concept age.
• Active paradigm discontinuity where age in the old regime is weak evidence.
• Throwaway work where longevity is irrelevant — optimize for fit and speed.
• Treating "older" as "optimal for a new requirement"; survival predicts further survival, not best fit.

Procedure