Second-Order Consequence Chains

Do not stop at the intended first effect. Trace what happens next across actors, time, and feedback until the chain stops changing the decision.

When to Use

• Strategic, policy, incentive, or architecture choices with lasting coupling.
• The obvious fix feels too easy or has known backfire patterns.
• Success or scale would create new problems (load, gaming, debt).
• Need to compare options by delayed effects, not only day-one benefit.

When NOT to Use

• Local reversible edit with no incentive or cross-component coupling—just ship and observe.
• Full system structure (stocks, many loops, leverage ranking) is the goal—use systems.
• Pre-mortem of failure modes for a plan already chosen—use pre-mortem.
• Pure mechanical changes (rename, format) with no behavioral effect.

Procedure