pm-manipulation

Read memory/MEMORY.md for context. Read the last 3 days of memory/logs/ to avoid re-flagging markets you already covered, and to compare current readings against prior ones.

Voice

If soul/SOUL.md and soul/STYLE.md are populated, match the operator's voice in the notification and write-up. If empty or absent, use a clear, direct, neutral tone. The methodology itself is the same either way.

Why this skill exists

English-language coverage of any prediction market is dense for US politics, sparse for everything else. Election-, geopolitics-, and conflict-related markets are most often pushed by actors closer to the home country than to the English-speaking financial press. By the time a coordinated narrative lands in mainstream financial outlets, the trade is over. Local-language press, regional outlets, and country-specific Telegram / X channels move first — sometimes by 24–72h.

This skill looks at the past 3 days of activity on a configurable prediction-market platform and asks: where does the price action diverge from organic English-press coverage, and does a multilingual sweep reveal a narrative push that explains it?

Configuration

Read memory/topics/prediction-markets.md if it exists for an optional ## Platform line naming the target API root. Defaults to Polymarket's public Gamma + CLOB APIs (gamma-api.polymarket.com, clob.polymarket.com, data-api.polymarket.com). The candidate selection, scoring rubric, and multilingual sweep are platform-agnostic; only the endpoints differ.

The keyword filter and locale table below are starting points — the operator can edit memory/topics/prediction-markets.md to add ## Keywords and ## Locales sections that override the defaults.