Kalshi Crypto & Index Range Markets

Kalshi lists daily (and for crypto, hourly) range bracket markets on the level of four liquid underlyings: S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. The math is the same partition-and-Gaussian framework as weather brackets — the variable is just price/return and σ comes from the underlying's realized or implied volatility, not a temperature model.

Cross-references: for Kalshi API mechanics see kalshi-api; for the strategy, sizing, and backtesting framework see prediction-market-strategy; for the temperature counterpart see kalshi-weather-markets; for the shared bracket/overround formulas see prediction-markets/references/brackets-and-settlement.md.

Series & Market-Type Mapping

SERIES_MARKET = {
    "KXINX":       "index",   # S&P 500 index level
    "KXNASDAQ100": "index",   # Nasdaq-100 index level
    "KXBTC":       "crypto",  # Bitcoin price (USD)
    "KXETH":       "crypto",  # Ethereum price (USD)
}