Kalshi Weather Markets — Daily Temperature High/Low

Kalshi lists daily high and low temperature options for ~20 US cities as binary contracts that settle YES ($1.00) or NO ($0.00). This skill covers the market structure, the forecast-to-probability map, exact settlement mechanics, and hard-won pitfalls. It builds on the exchange layer — for Kalshi API mechanics (host, auth, orders, order book, candlesticks) see the kalshi-api skill; for strategy, sizing, and backtesting see prediction-market-strategy.

Contract Types

Brackets — B<center>

A bracket ticker B<center> is a 2°F-wide, both-ends-inclusive window.

• B74.5 covers the two integers {74, 75}°F.
• YES iff the settled temperature is exactly 74 or 75.
• Brackets in one event are mutually exclusive and (with two open tail markets) collectively exhaustive.
• Their YES prices sum to the overround (fair = 1.0; > 1.0 = aggregate overpricing).

Thresholds — T<strike>

A threshold ticker T<strike> is a one-sided binary.