Validating Models and Claims

Decide what the available evidence actually supports. Treat a metric, chart, or successful run as evidence for a bounded claim, not as proof that the full system works.

Start with the claim

Write each material claim in a falsifiable form before selecting evidence:

• the decision or action the claim will influence;
• the population, unit of analysis, prediction horizon, and operating conditions;
• the comparator and practical improvement threshold;
• the cost of false positives, false negatives, abstention, and delay;
• the evidence that would refute or narrow the claim.

If these are unresolved and materially change the evaluation, surface the choice instead of silently selecting a convenient definition.

Build an evidence contract

For every claim, map the claim's scope to evidence of equal scope. A component test cannot establish end-to-end readiness; aggregate accuracy cannot establish subgroup safety; retrospective fit cannot establish future performance.