alphagbm-marks-cycle
Installation
SKILL.md
AlphaGBM Howard Marks Cycle
"Cycles are real — the shape just isn't predictable." Howard Marks's framework rejects forecasting and replaces it with cycle-position awareness: offense when others are pessimistic, defense when others are optimistic.
This skill gives you the one number Marks's entire philosophy implies: where are we right now.
The Cycle Score
Each signal is mapped to its own cycle component 0-100, then weighted:
| Signal | Weight | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| VIX | 40% | Low VIX → complacency → late cycle (high score). High VIX → fear → early cycle (low score) |
| IV Rank (SPY) | 25% | High IV rank → fear → early cycle |
| Put/Call ratio | 20% | Low P/C → complacent → late cycle |
| Valuation percentile | 15% | Higher PE percentile → later cycle |