alphagbm-polymarket
Installation
SKILL.md
AlphaGBM Polymarket Integration
Bridges prediction markets and options markets -- when Polymarket says 70% chance of a rate cut but options imply 55%, that is a potential mispricing you can trade.
What This Skill Does
| Concept | Description |
|---|---|
| Event Probability | The prediction market's consensus probability for a specific event (e.g., rate cut, election outcome) |
| Options-Implied Probability | The probability the options market is pricing in, derived from option prices and skew |
| Probability Spread | The gap between prediction market and options-implied probabilities -- large spreads signal mispricing |
| Arbitrage Signal | When the spread exceeds a threshold, there may be a tradeable opportunity |
| Event Correlation | How strongly a binary event maps to specific options positions |
| Historical Accuracy | Track record of prediction markets vs options in forecasting similar past events |
How to Use
Input: An event type or query about prediction market vs options pricing.