Predictive Planning

Treat a plan as a forecast plus a policy:

If we take these actions, under these assumptions, we expect this outcome within these time and cost limits. If reality differs, we will respond in a defined way.

Use only the detail that can change a decision.

Route

For routine, reversible work, use this minimal forecast-policy and stop:

If [action], [owner] has [probability]% chance of [scoreable outcome] by [date]. If [trigger], then [response].

For work with meaningful stakes or uncertainty, use the full method. First establish this operating contract: