Scenario Planning

Core principle: The future is uncertain. Don't predict which future happens — map plausible futures and test strategies against each. Robust strategies perform reasonably across multiple scenarios. Fragile strategies only work if one specific future occurs.

The Core Process

Step 1: Define the Decision or Strategy

• Time horizon (6 months / 2 years / 5 years)?
• Decision needed now?
• What does "good" look like across futures?

Step 2: Identify Key Uncertainties

The 2–3 factors that are both:

• Highly uncertain (we genuinely don't know how they'll unfold)
• Highly impactful (they'd significantly change the right strategy)

These are the scenario axes. Skip certainties and minor factors.