Oransim — Causal Digital Twin for Marketing

Skill by ara.so — Daily 2026 Skills collection.

Oransim is an open-source causal simulation engine for marketing teams. It lets you predict campaign ROI, run counterfactual "what if" scenarios (swap KOLs, reallocate budget, change platforms), and audit every prediction through a transparent 64-node causal graph — before spending a dollar.

Core capabilities:

• Pre-launch ROI ranking across creative × KOL × budget combinations
• Mid-campaign do()-operator rollouts (e.g. swap KOL on day 3, see 14-day path diff)
• Post-mortem counterfactuals (what if we'd spent on 小红书 instead of 抖音?)
• LLM-backed "soul personas" for 1M+ virtual consumer agents
• Causal Neural Hawkes Process for temporal cascade simulation
• Per-arm counterfactual heads (TARNet / Dragonnet architecture)

Installation