algo-forecast-prophet
Prophet Forecasting
Overview
Prophet (Meta) decomposes time series into trend + seasonality + holidays + error. Uses an additive (or multiplicative) model fitted with Stan. Handles missing data, outliers, and holiday effects natively. Designed for business time series at daily/weekly granularity.
When to Use
Trigger conditions:
- Forecasting business metrics (sales, traffic, engagement) at daily/weekly frequency
- Data with strong seasonal patterns and known holiday effects
- Need quick, reasonable forecasts without deep time series expertise
When NOT to use:
- For high-frequency data (sub-hourly) — Prophet is designed for daily+
- When you need causal/explanatory models (Prophet is descriptive)
- For very short time series (< 2 seasonal cycles)
Algorithm
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