Historical Analogy

Overview

Historical analogies apply lessons from past events to current decisions. When used rigorously, they provide pattern recognition and foresight. When used carelessly, they mislead by overfitting superficial similarities and ignoring structural differences.

Framework

IRON LAW: Structural Similarity, Not Surface Similarity

A valid analogy requires shared STRUCTURAL features (causal mechanisms,
power dynamics, systemic patterns), not just surface resemblance.

"This startup is the next Apple" because the founder wears turtlenecks =
surface similarity (worthless). "This market has the same demand-side
network effects as early smartphone adoption" = structural similarity (useful).