Systems Thinking

Framework

IRON LAW: First-Order Fixes in Complex Systems Produce Second-Order
Backlash Within 2 Cycles — Map the Feedback Loop BEFORE Intervening

Agents default to "fix the symptom directly" (e.g., high turnover → raise
salaries). In systems with feedback loops, the direct fix triggers a
compensating response that makes the original problem worse OR creates
a new one (raise salaries → budget squeeze → cut training → worse
onboarding → higher turnover). Before recommending any intervention,
draw the causal loop diagram and identify at least one reinforcing and
one balancing loop. If you can't find any, the problem may not be a
systems problem — don't force the framework.

Analysis Steps