bet-sizing
Installation
SKILL.md
Size product bets by separating reversible from irreversible decisions and shaping work to fit an appetite. Most product bets are Type 2 decisions — reversible, low-cost to try, high-cost to deliberate. Move fast on those. Save deliberation for Type 1 decisions that are hard to undo.
Type 1 vs Type 2 Decisions (Bezos)
Type 1 (Irreversible): One-way doors. Hard to undo once committed.
- Choosing a core technology/platform
- Pricing model changes that affect existing customers
- Killing a product line
- Public commitments (partnerships, integrations)
Type 2 (Reversible): Two-way doors. Easy to undo or iterate.
- Most new features (can ship, measure, remove)
- UI/UX changes (can A/B test or revert)
- Internal tooling decisions
- Most API additions (harder to remove, but additive is safer)
Rule: Use lightweight process for Type 2. Use deliberate process for Type 1. Most product teams over-process Type 2 decisions and under-process Type 1 decisions.
Shape Up Pitch Format
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