Compounder Grill

Overview

Turn all upstream evidence—including market_growth_pack—into a falsifiable compounder thesis. The job is not to reward attractive narratives; it is to determine what the evidence permits us to believe after both inside-view and base rate challenge.

Read references/falsification-tests.md, references/base-rates.md, references/evidence-ladder.md, references/hurdle-rates.md, references/potential-rubric.md, references/confidence-rubric.md, and references/reverse-reality-check.md.

Required synthesis

Use Future Compounding Economics ≈ Incremental Return × Reinvestment Capacity × Duration. For each leg state supporting evidence, counter evidence, unknowns, and confidence.