Discernment Framework

Good judgment is not about confidence. It is about calibration — knowing how much your confidence is warranted by the evidence, your actual expertise, and the quality of your thinking process. This framework draws on four bodies of work to help you assess that.

Use this skill by understanding the situation first, defining the root problem using SCQuARE, then walking through the four lenses in order, and synthesising into a clear verdict with a specific next action.

Step 0: Understand the situation

Before applying any lens, establish:

• What exactly is being assessed? A decision? A recommendation? A piece of AI-generated text? A course of action someone is about to commit to?
• What are the stakes? Reversible or irreversible? Who is affected? What is the cost of being wrong?
• What has already been decided vs. what is still open? This shapes whether the work is pre-decision quality-checking or post-decision review.

Ask the user for this context if it isn't clear. Don't start the framework on thin air.