Discernment

Assess a decision or claim against evidence. Use the full framework when requested or when stakes and uncertainty warrant it; ordinary questions do not need a judgment ceremony.

1. Identify the decision, stakes, settled constraints and uncertainty from the brief. Ask only for missing context that changes the assessment. Do not silently substitute a different problem.
2. Separate observations, assumptions and inference. Check relevant primary sources, base rates and actual past outcomes. If unavailable, say what remains uncertain.
3. Look for a plausible falsifier, an underweighted downside and a condition that would change the recommendation. Apply only the lenses that help; read references/frameworks.md for a specifically requested framework. Its historical descriptions are not evidence about the user.
4. Give the conclusion, supporting evidence, material uncertainty and one useful next action. Record a prediction and follow-up criterion when the task calls for later calibration; do not write personal memory unless requested.

Assess the reasoning, not the person's intelligence or personality. Sparse chat does not establish Dunning-Kruger, a Hogan profile or another psychological diagnosis. Do not repeat unsupported population percentages. Use a probability only with a stated basis; otherwise describe uncertainty and the check that would reduce it. A simulated premortem or dissenting perspective is a hypothesis, not observed evidence.