AER Referee Simulation

Overview

Most papers submitted to AER are rejected; the realistic acceptance rate is 6-8 percent, and a large share never reach referees. The cheapest referee report is the one generated before submission — but only if it is as harsh as the real one. The failure mode of self-review (human or AI) is leniency: reviewing the paper one hopes was written instead of the one on the page.

This skill runs the AER editorial process against the draft: a ten-minute desk screen, then three referee reports written from distinct, adversarial priors, then an editor's synthesis with a calibrated verdict and a prioritized revise list. The simulation has one rule that overrides all others: