synthetic-control
Installation
SKILL.md
Synthetic Control Method (SCM) Skill
This skill guides complete synthetic control analyses: donor pool construction, weight optimization, gap estimation, placebo-based inference, and extensions including augmented SCM and synthetic DID. Designed for policy evaluation with few treated units.
When to Use Synthetic Control
| Situation | Method |
|---|---|
| Single treated unit, many potential controls | Classic SCM |
| Few treated units | Multi-unit SCM or Synthetic DID |
| Treatment at aggregate level (state, country) | Classic SCM |
| Want DID-like inference with SCM weighting | Synthetic DID (Arkhangelsky et al. 2021) |
Key advantage over DID: SCM constructs a data-driven counterfactual rather than assuming parallel trends for all control units equally.
Core Logic
SCM constructs a weighted combination of untreated ("donor") units that best approximates the treated unit's pre-treatment characteristics and outcome trajectory.