Scenario planning

Forecasting produces one number and false confidence. Scenario planning produces a plan that survives being wrong, which is the realistic goal.

Separate what you know from what you are assuming

List the plan's assumptions explicitly, then sort them:

• Predetermined — things that will happen regardless. Demographics, contracted commitments, technology already deployed. Plan around them; do not spend analysis on them.
• Genuinely uncertain and load-bearing — the plan changes materially depending on how they resolve.

Almost every plan has two or three load-bearing uncertainties. Finding them is most of the value, and the exercise usually surfaces one nobody had articulated.

Build scenarios from the uncertainties, not from moods