4P Opportunity Framework
The 4P Opportunity Framework
"If you apply a filter that says, 'Oh, I only have a one in 10 chance to pull this off... not going to do that.' Well, if it's a one in 10 chance at 10 billion, it might be worth it." — Dharmesh Shah
What It Is
A quantitative approach to weighing opportunities that forces a separation between outcome size and success likelihood, preventing risk aversion from stifling innovation.
When To Use
- Deciding between multiple strategic directions
- Evaluating new product lines or startup ideas
- Breaking analysis paralysis on high-stakes bets
- When team is only pursuing "safe" opportunities
The 4Ps (In Order)
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