The 4P Opportunity Framework

"If you apply a filter that says, 'Oh, I only have a one in 10 chance to pull this off... not going to do that.' Well, if it's a one in 10 chance at 10 billion, it might be worth it." — Dharmesh Shah

What It Is

A quantitative approach to weighing opportunities that forces a separation between outcome size and success likelihood, preventing risk aversion from stifling innovation.

When To Use

• Deciding between multiple strategic directions
• Evaluating new product lines or startup ideas
• Breaking analysis paralysis on high-stakes bets
• When team is only pursuing "safe" opportunities

The 4Ps (In Order)