Skill: ib_trade-analysis

Purpose

This skill generates a high-conviction, 8-day directional forecast score (-100 to +100) for a curated universe of AI infrastructure and platform stocks. It fuses OSINT intelligence with recent price structure and relative strength.

Core Mandates

Asymmetric Probability Only: Do not trade "good" stocks. Trade when the next 8-day probability distribution is asymmetric and catalyst-driven.
AI-Supercycle Focus: Prioritize GPU/accelerator stack (NVDA, AMD), foundry (TSM), and hyperscalers (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN).
8-Day Window: All forecasts and trades are designed for a 24-hour to 8-day horizon.

1. Forecast Engine (Score: -100 to +100)

Every Monday (U.S. Open), generate a score based on these weights:

50% OSINT Catalyst: Measure the strength of recent AI-related news, capex changes, supply chain wins, or regulatory headwinds.
25% Price Structure (8-Day): Analyze only the last 8 trading days. Focus on higher highs/lows, daily closes, and volume.
15% Relative Strength: Compare the stock against the NASDAQ-100 and its sector peers.
10% Event/Risk: Factor in earnings, conferences, and macro shocks.