CWICR Risk Calculator

Business Case

Problem Statement

Cost estimates have inherent uncertainty:

• What contingency to apply?
• What is the confidence range?
• Which items have highest risk?
• How to quantify uncertainty?

Solution

Risk-adjusted cost calculations using contingency analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and probability distributions based on CWICR cost data.

Business Value

• Informed decisions - Understand estimate uncertainty
• Appropriate contingency - Data-driven risk allowance
• Confidence intervals - P50, P80, P90 estimates
• Risk prioritization - Focus on high-impact items