epic-hypothesis
Structure epics as testable hypotheses with explicit assumptions, lightweight experiments, and measurable success criteria.
- Uses an if/then format to articulate the action, target persona, expected outcome, and validation method, making product assumptions explicit before committing to full build-out
- Emphasizes "tiny acts of discovery" experiments (prototypes, concierge tests, landing pages) that validate hypotheses in days or weeks, not months
- Defines falsifiable success criteria combining quantitative metrics (e.g., activation rate increase) and qualitative feedback (e.g., user willingness to pay)
- Treats epics as bets to be tested and potentially invalidated, not feature commitments, reducing risk in early-stage exploration and roadmap prioritization
Purpose
Frame epics as testable hypotheses using an if/then structure that articulates the action or solution, the target beneficiary, the expected outcome, and how you'll validate success. Use this to manage uncertainty in product development by making assumptions explicit, defining lightweight experiments ("tiny acts of discovery"), and establishing measurable success criteria before committing to full build-out.
This is not a requirements spec—it's a hypothesis you're testing, not a feature you're committed to shipping.
Key Concepts
The Epic Hypothesis Framework
Inspired by Tim Herbig's Lean UX hypothesis format, the structure is:
If/Then Hypothesis:
- If we [action or solution on behalf of target persona]
- for [target persona]
- Then we will [attain or achieve a desirable outcome or job-to-be-done]
Tiny Acts of Discovery Experiments:
- We will test our assumption by:
- [Experiment 1]
More from deanpeters/product-manager-skills
prd-development
Build a structured PRD that connects problem, users, solution, and success criteria. Use when turning discovery notes into an engineering-ready document for a major initiative.
1.7Kuser-story
Create user stories with Mike Cohn format and Gherkin acceptance criteria. Use when turning user needs into development-ready work with clear outcomes and testable conditions.
1.7Kroadmap-planning
Plan a strategic roadmap across prioritization, epic definition, stakeholder alignment, and sequencing. Use when turning strategy into a release plan that teams can execute.
1.5Kcompany-research
Create a company research brief with executive quotes, product strategy, and org context. Use when preparing for interviews, competitive analysis, partnerships, or market-entry work.
1.3Kproduct-strategy-session
Run an end-to-end product strategy session across positioning, discovery, and roadmap planning. Use when a team needs validated direction before committing to execution.
1.2Kprioritization-advisor
Choose a prioritization framework based on stage, team context, and stakeholder needs. Use when deciding between RICE, ICE, value/effort, or another scoring approach.
1.1K