Feedback Loops

Overview

A system has a feedback loop when its output circles back as input to the next cycle. Reinforcing loops amplify (compound interest, viral growth, bank runs, death spirals). Balancing loops self-correct (thermostats, price discovery, immune response). The critical complication is delay: when delay is long relative to response time, even well-designed balancing loops produce oscillation and overshoot — and operators systematically mismanage the system (Sterman 1989: supply-line underweight = 0.34 on a 0–1 scale).

Composes with: second-order-thinking · s-curve-technology-adoption · prisoners-dilemma · probabilistic-thinking

When to Use

Apply when: system shows non-linear surprise (collapse, oscillation, death spiral, growth flywheel); you are intervening in a complex system and success depends on how it responds; trends are not extrapolating well; bullwhip or oscillation in any quantity that should be steady; a capex/AI-adoption flywheel is compounding and you need to know when the balancing limits (power, supply, cost, AI-native competition) will bite and whether it will overshoot.

When NOT to use: one-shot linear decision with no feedback; insufficient data to map loops (hand-waving without structure); decision too time-bounded for delays to matter; exogenous shock dominates internal dynamics.

Coaching Novices (Adaptive Front Door)

• Engine mode: concrete case → run The Process directly.
• Coach mode: unfamiliar or no concrete case → guide, don't lecture.