ria-position-sizing-kelly
Installation
SKILL.md
RIA — Position Sizing & Concentration Discipline
Industry front door for expected-value-and-kelly. Adds domain triggers, example, packs only. Parent Process unchanged. Not investment advice. Educational framework; apply within IPS and suitability.
Activate when: sizing a single-name or thematic position; a client with concentrated stock; setting max-position/rebalancing bands; "how much of the portfolio should this be?" Do NOT activate when: broad index allocation already governed by the IPS.
Why this variant
The parent expected-value-and-kelly sizes repeated positive-edge bets to maximize long-run growth without ruin. For an RIA, the discipline is inverted toward survival: fractional-Kelly thinking caps concentration so no single position can impair the client's plan.
Domain inputs → parent's Process
- Establish the edge is real and repeatable before sizing anything.
- Use fractional Kelly (e.g. ¼–½) — full Kelly is too volatile for client capital.
- Bound by IPS max-position and drawdown tolerance; the smaller of Kelly-implied and IPS cap wins.
- Treat concentrated legacy stock as an over-sized position to unwind on a tax-aware schedule.