Portfolio Construction (Bubble-Aware, All-Weather)

Builds a target allocation that participates in equity upside but survives a concentration-bubble unwind, without requiring a market-timing call. The thesis: at high valuations + extreme concentration, the fix is de-concentrate the equity core + add uncorrelated diversifiers + keep dry powder, not "predict the crash" or "go to cash."

Mandatory framing

• Educational framework, not personalized advice; consult a fee-only fiduciary at meaningful size.
• Assumes a long-horizon investor treating this as growth capital, with emergency fund and high-interest debt already handled.
• Defense underperforms in bull markets — that lag is the premium paid to cap the left tail.

The four macro regimes (the design principle)

Never bet everything on one. Hold something that wins in each: prosperity (stocks, small-cap value), recession/deflation (long Treasuries, cash), inflation (gold, commodities, TIPS), tight money (T-bills).

Target allocation — pick a risk tier