Superforecasting the Market

Turn a "what happens next / is now the time" question into a calibrated probabilistic forecast you can be scored on later. Not a vibe, not a single verdict — a base case with a probability, the alternates with theirs, the measurable triggers that flip it, and a ledger entry so it gets graded. Asset-agnostic: crypto, stocks, indices, rates, macro — same method, different lenses & venues.

Lineage (name it when asked): Tetlock & Gardner, Superforecasting (2015) — dragonfly-eye aggregation, base rates, calibration; Hayek (1945) / Hanson / Wolfers & Zitzewitz — markets aggregate dispersed info (the odds anchor); Soros, Alchemy of Finance (1987) — reflexivity for price mechanics. multi-lens-quorum is the verdict sibling; this is the forecast method on top of it.

When to use vs not (cost gate)

Use when ALL hold: the output wanted is a prediction about a market outcome (not a buy/hold opinion); there's a dated catalyst/horizon a market can price (CPI/FOMC, earnings, unlock, ETF ruling, "by month-end"); the probability matters.