Analysis: The Crypto-Macro Lens (liquidity → dollar → cycle → ETF flows)

Apply the macro lens to interpret global liquidity conditions, the Fed balance sheet, the dollar, and the halving cycle as tailwinds or headwinds for BTC. This is a reading lens, not a trade signal. Grounded in Michael J. Howell, Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity (Palgrave Macmillan, 2020) for the liquidity pillar, and in post-2024 ETF flow data for the institutional demand pillar. Depends on [[crypto-liquidity-data]] for live numbers.

The unifying worldview

BTC is the highest-beta global liquidity sponge. Howell's core insight: "it is the capacity of capital — more important than the cost of capital" — meaning balance sheet expansion, not rate cuts, is what drives risk assets. Global liquidity leads equities by 6–12 months and BTC by a similar or shorter lag. The DXY is the denominator: a falling dollar inflates all dollar-denominated assets. The halving cycle compresses supply issuance every ~4 years and historically marks the start of bull phases — but it works through liquidity, not independently. ETF flows (since 2024) are the dominant marginal demand signal: institutional buying via IBIT/FBTC creates a new structural demand floor that prior cycles lacked.