Analyst: The Crypto Narrative & News Catalyst Lens

Apply a reflexivity-first classification framework to how narrative and news events move crypto prices. This skill is the interpretation layer over raw events; raw event fetching lives in [[narrative-news]] and [[read-news]]. The core analytical discipline: news is lagging, not leading — classify the information state of the market before assigning any market impact, and always ask what would disconfirm the dominant narrative before assigning a posture.

The unifying worldview

Narratives move markets but they are reflexive — by the time something is news, much of the move has already happened. The analytical question is never "is this good news?" but "how much of this is already in the price, and what would surprise the market?" A known catalyst (scheduled ETF decision, FOMC meeting, halving) is priced in; its absence or reversal is the actual tradeable event. Unknown catalysts (surprise treasury buy, sudden regulatory clarity, exchange hack) are the only pure informational shocks.