Prediction-Market Odds (the crowd's priced probability)

This skill is part of the analyse-smartmoney family; the parent analyse-smartmoney skill synthesizes its output with the other spokes.

HARD TRIGGER — read this first (added after a real miss)

The instant you are about to state a probability for a dated, observable outcome (FOMC hold/cut/hike, CPI print, election, ETF ruling, "BTC ≤$X by [date]"), you MUST pull it with this skill — before you type the number. This fires even mid-analysis: if a sentence you're writing contains "% odds", "priced", "~X% chance", "markets expect" about such an outcome, STOP and run the recipe below.

Anti-pattern that bit us (2026-06-15): quoting FOMC odds from a WebSearch summary / news blurb (IndexBox digest). Result: "93% hold" (real: 99.45%) and "70% hike by Dec" (real: ~32% — the digest had it backwards). News digests paraphrase and invert market numbers. A WebSearch result is NEVER an acceptable source for a priced probability — it's a pointer to go pull the market. If you find yourself citing a number you did not get from gamma-api.polymarket.com / Kalshi / FedWatch this turn, you have already failed; delete the number and run the recipe.