Analyst: Derivatives Positioning (how the market is positioned + what it prices)

This skill is part of the analyse-smartmoney family; the parent analyse-smartmoney skill synthesizes its output with the other spokes.

Read the market beneath spot: where leverage sits, what options price, who is offside. Two halves — futures/flow and options/implied — read together (funding without skew is half a picture). This is the positioning / market-implied seat. Cross-asset: same lens, different venues for crypto vs equities.

Two caveats up front (the blind spot): positioning is necessary-not-sufficient — crowded can stay crowded for weeks. And options-implied probabilities are risk-neutral, inflated by the vol risk premium — they are not real-world odds. Never quote an options-implied prob as if it were a true probability; state both.

When to use vs not

Use when the question is about positioning, leverage, or what derivatives price — direction conviction, squeeze/cascade risk, an implied move around a catalyst, a max-pain pin into expiry.