Earnings Attribution Analysis

Goal: Determine WHY a stock moved after an 8-K filing by calculating the SURPRISE (actual vs expected).

Thinking: ALWAYS use ultrathink for maximum reasoning depth.

End Goal: Build company-specific driver understanding for real-time prediction accuracy.

Core Principles

1. Comprehensiveness Over Speed: Query ALL relevant data sources
2. Evidence-Based Claims Only: Every claim must cite a source
3. Surprise-Focused: Stock moves on actual vs expectations, not absolute results
4. Learn from History: Each analysis builds company-specific knowledge
5. Self-Audit: Validate all claims have sources before completing