Three Horizons Learning Transition Mapper

What This Skill Does

Guides students through a Three Horizons mapping exercise that helps them understand how a current system is changing, what kind of future they want to grow, and which innovations are genuinely moving toward that future. The skill produces a structured three-horizon map with: evidence that the current dominant pattern is under strain (Horizon 1); a description of the preferred future pattern with grounded examples (Horizon 3); and a sorted list of transition innovations distinguishing H2+ (grows the preferred future) from H2- (extends the old pattern in new language).

Three Horizons is not a timeline. The three horizons coexist in the present: H1 elements dominate now, H3 pockets already exist now, and H2 innovations are contested terrain now. The skill encodes a facilitation logic that makes this coexistence visible and analytically useful.

Evidence Space and Strength of Evidence

This skill encodes the H3Uni Three Horizons method, a practitioner framework for futures thinking and transformative change facilitation.

Component Evidence

• Curry & Hodgson (2008) multiple horizons (emerging): This foundational paper describes the Three Horizons framework as a tool for strategic futures thinking. It provides conceptual grounding for the H1/H2/H3 distinctions and the H2+/H2- classification. The paper is theoretical and practitioner-oriented, not a controlled study.
• Sharpe et al. (2016) pathways practice (emerging): This ecology and society paper describes Three Horizons as a participatory transformation pathway tool and documents its use in professional and community contexts. It provides the most systematic academic account of the method, including the H2+/H2- distinction and the facilitation sequence. The paper does not include randomised or comparative study designs.
• Sharpe & Hodgson (2019) anticipation framework (emerging): This chapter positions Three Horizons within the broader literature on anticipation and future consciousness, connecting it to cognitive and sociological accounts of how groups develop shared futures thinking.
• H3Uni Three Horizons tutorials and facilitation guides (practitioner framework): H3Uni's Resource Library includes step-by-step facilitation guides for Three Horizons mapping with adult groups in policy, ecology, and organisational contexts. These are practitioner resources, not peer-reviewed evaluations.