Create Estimation

Overview

Create a structured three-point estimation using PERT-weighted averages. Breaks work into concrete tasks, estimates each with optimistic/likely/pessimistic bounds, identifies risk factors, and produces a total range with a recommended commitment point.

Workflow

1. Read project context -- Read .chalk/docs/ for PRDs, user stories, acceptance criteria, and architecture docs. Understanding scope and integration points is essential before estimating.

2. Determine the next estimation number -- List files in .chalk/docs/engineering/ matching the pattern *_estimation_*.md. Find the highest number and increment by 1. If none exist, start at 1.

3. Understand the scope -- From $ARGUMENTS, conversation context, and project docs, identify:

   • What exactly is being estimated (feature, epic, spike, migration)
   • Acceptance criteria or definition of done
   • Known integration points with existing systems
   • Whether this is greenfield or modification of existing code
   • If scope is unclear, ask the user before estimating -- estimation without scope understanding is guessing