Exercise Assignment Dividend Risk

objective

Execute assignment and early-exercise risk workflows with event-aware diagnostics and defensible control thresholds.

workflow

1. define contract style, dividend calendar, and carry assumptions.
2. estimate early-exercise incentives around ex-dividend and carry conditions.
3. score assignment probability for short options by moneyness and time value.
4. stress assignment impact on inventory, financing, and overnight gap risk.
5. release only when event controls and de-risking rules are operationally sound.

required diagnostics

• early-exercise incentive distribution around ex-dividend dates.
• short-option assignment probability by moneyness bucket.
• residual time-value versus exercise-value relationship.
• assignment shock impact on overnight exposure and borrow needs.
• event-driven pnl slippage around exercise windows.