Duolingo Growth Model

Measurement and prioritization for growth. This skill answers two questions: when the top-line number stops moving, what do you measure and who owns it, and how do you read demand that arrives from outside the product.

It does not tell you how to build the loops, share artifacts or campaigns that move those numbers. This skill tells you the invite step is the constraint; [[../duo-growth/SKILL]] tells you how to build the invite.

Choosing the metric

• [[references/decompose-a-flat-metric-into-state-transitions]] — rebuild a stalled top-line number as mutually exclusive user states plus transition rates, simulate each transition alone, and staff a team against the winner.
• [[references/movable-metrics-have-a-shelf-life]] — succeeding at a segment metric grows that segment until it is the new monolith; plan the successor while the metric still works, and mine anomalies for the segments you did not know you had.

Ordering the work

• [[references/compounding-makes-timing-a-lever]] — a retention gain feeds the next period's base, so launch date dominates lifetime value and roadmap order is a lever independent of scope.
• [[references/attack-the-widest-funnel-step-not-the-deepest]] — write the chain from eligible to fully engaged, then optimize the step with the largest population rather than the one with the loudest users.
• [[references/a-free-tier-buys-statistical-power]] — free distribution is R&D spend: volume is what makes small real effects detectable, at the permanent cost of never being able to charge for the core.

Reading demand you did not create