commodity-analysis
Installation
SKILL.md
Commodity Analysis
Overview
Analyze commodities from four dimensions — supply-demand balance, pricing model, inventory cycle, and futures structure — and output directional signals suitable for backtesting. Focuses on crude oil (global pricing anchor), gold (safe haven + inflation hedge), and copper (economic barometer).
Core Concepts
1. Crude Oil Supply-Demand Balance
Key supply-side variables:
| Variable | Data Source | Frequency | Direction of Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPEC production | OPEC monthly report | Monthly | Production cuts → oil price ↑ |
| US shale output | EIA weekly report | Weekly | Higher output → oil price ↓ |
| Rig count (Baker Hughes) | Baker Hughes | Weekly | Leads production by 3-6 months |
| Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) | EIA | Weekly | SPR release → short-term oil price ↓ |