earnings-revision
Installation
SKILL.md
Earnings Revision & Guidance Analysis
Overview
Track sell-side analyst estimate revisions, management guidance changes, and post-earnings price drift to generate investment signals. Earnings revisions are among the most persistent and well-documented alpha factors in equity markets — stocks with upward revisions tend to continue outperforming, and vice versa.
Core Concepts
1. Earnings Revision Momentum
The revision signal hierarchy (strongest to weakest):
| Signal Type | Description | Typical Alpha (annualized) | Persistence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings surprise (beat/miss) | Actual EPS vs consensus | 3-8% post-event drift | 60-90 days (PEAD) |
| Consensus revision breadth | % of analysts revising up vs down | 4-6% long-short spread | 3-6 months |
| Estimate magnitude change | Size of revision relative to prior estimate | 3-5% | 1-3 months |
| Guidance revision | Management guidance change vs prior | 5-10% on event | Immediate + 30-60 day drift |
| Whisper number miss/beat | Actual vs buy-side whisper (not official consensus) | 2-4% | 1-2 weeks |